Solar payback calculator

Compare solar investment, fixed tariffs, self-consumption and degradation using transparent annual cash flows.

Solar, storage and flexibility Updated Free, no sign-up

6000upfront investment
50generation used on site
9,403 currencyYear 0Year 25-6,000 currency at lower bound

Year 0 to year 25, left to right. Vertical range: -6,000 to 9,403 currency. Horizontal line marks zero.

Cumulative cash flowDiscounted cash flow

First payback crossing: 9.312 years

Edit cost or self-consumption to compare a fixed-tariff scenario. All amounts use the same currency.

Example values
Investment and generation
currency
kWh

Use interval data or a documented scenario, not annual load divided by annual PV.

%
%
Fixed-price scenario
currency/kWh
currency/kWh
currency/year
%
years

Undiscounted cash-flow payback

9.312years

Use one currency consistently across costs and tariffs.

First-year net benefit
660 currency/year
25-year net benefit
9,403 currency
Net present value
2,809 currency

Fixed tariffs and annual operating cost. No financing, tax, grants or replacement costs. Payback is the first cumulative crossing, not a guarantee of positive lifetime value.

How it’s calculated
  1. Year-one value = PV × [self-use × import rate + export share × export rate]=4000 × [0.5 × 0.3 + 0.5 × 0.08]=760
  2. NPV = −CAPEX + sum(net benefit / (1 + discount rate)^year)=25 annual cash flows=2,809

The entered investment is first recovered after about 9.312 years under these assumptions.

Tip: Self-consumption fraction stays fixed as generation degrades. A detailed time-series tariff model is needed where prices or usage change.

Method and boundaries

Each unit consumed on site avoids the entered import unit price. Each exported unit receives the entered export payment. Fixed standing charges are not avoided by producing solar electricity. Enter an evidenced self-consumption fraction or compare clearly labelled scenarios. Prices in the form are illustrative, not regional tariff presets.

Value self-use and exports separately

Each unit consumed on site avoids the entered import unit price. Each exported unit receives the entered export payment. Fixed standing charges are not avoided by producing solar electricity. Enter an evidenced self-consumption fraction or compare clearly labelled scenarios. Prices in the form are illustrative, not regional tariff presets.

Follow each year’s cash flow

Generation reduces by the entered annual degradation fraction after the first year. The same self-consumption fraction, tariffs and operating cost apply to every year. Net benefit is energy value less annual operating cost. Cumulative benefit starts at negative capital cost; the first crossing is interpolated within that year.

Separate payback from lifetime value

A short first payback does not guarantee a positive value over every later horizon, especially where operating cost continues while production falls. Net present value discounts each annual net benefit to year zero and subtracts capital cost. This simplified calculation excludes loans, tax, replacement equipment and changing tariffs; use a full project model for an investment decision.

Solar cash flow and payback examples

Five-year recovery at fixed prices

Annual benefit is 200 currency units and payback is 5 years. At the end of 10 years, net benefit and NPV are both 1000 under the zero-discount, zero-degradation assumptions.

Undiscounted cash-flow payback 5 years Open in the calculator

Operating costs exceed energy value

Payback is Not reached. Energy value is 200 per year but operating cost is 300, so the project loses another 100 each year after the initial outlay. Ten-year net benefit is negative 2000.

Undiscounted cash-flow payback Not reached Open in the calculator

Questions about Solar cash flow and payback

What currency is used?

Any single consistent currency. Enter capital and operating costs in that currency and import/export prices per kWh in the same currency. The tool does not convert currencies.

Is this financial advice?

No. It is transparent arithmetic for the assumptions you enter. It does not forecast electricity prices, tax treatment, financing or actual production.

Why can export value change the answer so much?

The calculator assigns the import price only to electricity used directly on site. Exported electricity receives the separate export rate. Using the import rate for all generation would exaggerate savings wherever exports receive less. Enter the marginal unit prices actually affected by generation; fixed bill charges remain outside this calculation.

Limits of this result

  • Example costs and tariffs are illustrative, not current market quotes or financial advice. Use the same currency throughout.
  • Fixed import/export rates and operating cost; no inflation, financing, tax, replacement costs or demand-charge savings.
  • Self-consumption fraction stays fixed as generation degrades. A detailed time-series tariff model is needed where prices or usage change.

Related guides

Sources

  1. System Advisor Model: Payback Period (opens in a new tab) National Laboratory of the Rockies, accessed 2026-10-01
  2. System Advisor Model: Electricity Rates (opens in a new tab) National Laboratory of the Rockies, accessed 2026-10-01