Aurora Energy Research: Power market forecasts and asset valuation software for investors and developers

Overview

Aurora Energy Research was incorporated in Oxford in March 2013 (Companies House) by University of Oxford professors and economists, and still keeps its head office in the city (Clean Energy Wire). It began as a UK advisory and forecasting firm. By its 2020 management buyout it employed 148 people in Oxford, Berlin and Sydney (Travers Smith); by June 2025 its owners described a business serving more than 1,000 institutions in more than 40 markets from 17 offices (TPG).

Its position in energy trading and optimisation is upstream of the trading desk. Aurora's core product is a long-term, fundamentals-based view of power prices and revenues that lenders, investors and developers use to value assets and raise finance (Travers Smith). Around that subscription it has built software that lets clients run its models themselves: Origin for market scenarios, Chronos for battery valuation, Amun for wind, Lumus for power purchase agreement pricing and Nodal Explorer for US nodal prices (Software).

That distinction matters for buyers comparing it with trading platforms. Aurora's tools forecast, value and simulate dispatch; they do not connect to exchanges, place bids or schedule live assets. The company calls itself the largest dedicated power analytics provider in Europe (About), a claim that is not independently verified.

Offering

Aurora sells three things: subscriptions to its forecasts and research, software that runs its models on a client's own assumptions, and commissioned advisory work. All three are delivered through EOS, its client platform.

Subscription analytics

Subscription services are organised by theme: Power and Renewables, Flexible Energy, Grid, Hydrogen and Global Commodities (Aurora Energy Research). A subscriber receives Aurora's market forecasts, reports and data on EOS. These are Aurora's own forecasts, not software the client operates. Flexplorer, a battery benchmarking hub launched in 2026, compares a battery's earnings with similar assets and backcasts what it could have earned, and is included in the Flexible Energy subscription (Solar Power Portal).

Software

• Origin runs scenarios on Aurora's power market model so a client can test its own commodity, demand, technology and policy assumptions; Aurora reports more than 80 companies using it (Origin).
• Chronos values battery storage using Aurora's battery dispatch engine, with hundreds of simulations across sites, degradation cases and balancing markets, and links to Origin scenarios; more than 200 organisations use it, the company says (Chronos).
• Amun produces site-specific wind revenue and curtailment forecasts and turbine comparisons in 17 markets, with more than 100 subscribers (Amun).
• Lumus prices and structures power purchase agreements in more than 15 markets through a web interface (Lumus).
• Nodal Explorer gives US nodal basis and curtailment forecasts to 2050 from a security-constrained dispatch model, with Excel data books and map layers for siting (Nodal Explorer).

Advisory

Commissioned work covers transaction and financing support, bankable market reports, PPAs, asset siting and optimisation, strategy and portfolio valuation (Advisory).

Technology

Aurora's technology is its market models rather than an operational platform. Forecasts come from fundamentals models of each power market, and the software products expose those models: Origin runs the power market model on client inputs, Chronos runs a battery dispatch optimisation over Aurora's price scenarios, and Nodal Explorer uses security-constrained economic dispatch power flow modelling rather than statistical regression of historical prices (Nodal Explorer).

Delivery

EOS is the web platform through which subscribers read forecasts and reports and open the software (Software). Lumus is described as a web interface needing little onboarding (Lumus). Nodal outputs are also supplied as Excel data books (Nodal Explorer). A customer testimonial mentions a Chronos API for testing hypotheses (Chronos), but Aurora publishes no API reference, developer documentation or data feed specification.

Integration

Integration is mostly between Aurora's own products: Chronos can run on Origin scenarios (Origin), and Flexplorer uses the Chronos engine inside EOS (Solar Power Portal). Nothing on the site describes connections to exchanges, trading systems, ETRM platforms, SCADA or asset telemetry, so Aurora's numbers reach a trading or scheduling system through a client's own data handling.

Security

Aurora's site has no security, trust or compliance page, and no ISO 27001, SOC 2 or Cyber Essentials certification is published. Its registered activity is environmental consulting (Companies House), which fits a firm whose software grew out of its research business.

Customers

Aurora names clients mostly through logos and testimonials rather than case studies. The home page shows Amazon, Barclays, RWE, Gore Street, Partners Group and Intergen among its clients (Aurora Energy Research). The Origin page shows Shell, EDF and Macquarie (Origin); the Amun page shows CIP, Ørsted, SSE, TotalEnergies and Vestas (Amun); and the advisory page shows Centrica, EDF Energy, Engie, National Grid, TotalEnergies, Vitol, Drax and Commonwealth Bank, with a testimonial from Orlen (Advisory). None of these pages says what each client bought or what it achieved.

The client base is broad by type: utilities, developers, investors, banks, energy consumers and governments. Its forecasts support commercial lending and investment decisions as well as national policy and planning (Travers Smith).

In June 2025 the owners put the client count at more than 1,000 institutions (TPG); the software page says more than 750 businesses (Software). Product-level user counts are company-reported: more than 200 for Chronos, more than 80 for Origin and more than 100 subscribers for Amun.

Markets

Aurora covered more than 40 markets in June 2025 across Europe, the Americas, Asia and Australia, from 17 offices in 14 countries (TPG). In October 2026 its website lists 40 market pages: 28 in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (from Great Britain, Germany and the Nordics to the Western Balkans and South Africa), seven in Asia Pacific (Australia, India, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore), three in North America (Canada, Mexico, United States) and two in South America (Brazil, Chile) (Chronos).

Product coverage is narrower than the forecast footprint. Amun covers 17 markets (Amun), Lumus more than 15 (Lumus), and Nodal Explorer is specific to US grid operator regions such as ERCOT, CAISO and PJM (Nodal Explorer). Germany is a large second home: the Berlin office has grown considerably (Clean Energy Wire).

Buyers fall into four groups the company names: the financial sector, energy consumers, utilities and developers (Aurora Energy Research). The 2025 investment was framed around growth in the United States and Asia (ESG Today).

Company

Founding and ownership

Aurora Energy Research Limited, company number 08442755, was incorporated on 13 March 2013 with its registered office at St Aldates Chambers in Oxford (Companies House). It was founded by University of Oxford professors and economists (About), and until October 2020 two individuals each held between 25% and 50% of the shares (Companies House).

On 30 October 2020 CGE Partners led a management buyout, with the US data fund 22C Capital investing alongside; terms were not disclosed. Aurora then had 148 staff and offices in Oxford, Berlin and Sydney (Travers Smith). Since that date a holding company, Emperor UK Topco Limited, has held more than 75% of the shares and votes (Companies House).

On 4 June 2025 TPG Rise Climate, TPG's climate investing platform, agreed to buy a majority stake from CGE. CGE, 22C Capital and the chief executive agreed to reinvest, and closing was expected in the second half of 2025 subject to regulatory approval (TPG). The price was not disclosed (The Energyst).

Size

Headcount figures differ. TPG's release put it at about 900 employees (TPG), while ESG Today, reporting the same deal, gave more than 600 professionals (ESG Today). Either way the firm grew several times over between 2020 and 2025.